Michel Gurfinkiel

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Tuesday, May 8 2012

Not Over Yet : François Hollande Faces National Assembly Elections

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#1 Stiven (Homepage) on 2012-06-02 10:49 (Reply)
53-47 on second round(1) does not mean annyhitg at this stage, as any decent pollster will tell you and (2) is much better than 60-40.I think that you should brace yourself for a Sarkozy's victory: 51-49. As soon as "l'espoir change de camp, le combat change d'ame" and the big Mo will come into play. Hollande may not be able to play it safe and cool for very long, now, and then the big intellectual and policy vacuum will be apparent to everybody.
#1.1 Zara (Homepage) on 2012-06-02 14:00 (Reply)
There is no post-Toulouse bump for Sarko here, as his score is unchanged from CSA's poll of a week ago. According to CSA's own alynasis Hollande's two point drop can be explained by some of his voters moving to Joly and the extreame gauche candidates.Arun
#1.2 Wanita (Homepage) on 2012-06-04 04:44 (Reply)
There doesn’t seem to have been much of a bump as reflected in the polls. I think Arun is right that most of the drift from Hollande is towards other leftist candidates, most especially towards Mélenchon. My assumption is that most, probably all, of these voters will come home to the PS in the second round (unless Hollande does something stupid like attacking Mélenchon) Nevertheless, I think Sarkozy has done well out of this terrible situation in Toulouse even if it isn’t reflected in the polls. He didn’t overreact either during or in the aftermath. For example, in his decision to exclude certain radical preachers, Sarkozy focused on many of the same points that were made by Fethi Benslama in the brief commentary that Arun posted. Sarkozy’s handling of Merah’s burial----he’s French, just put him in the ground and don’t make a production of it---struck me as correct and striking all the right notes for a president.
#1.3 Mahala (Homepage) on 2012-06-07 11:05 (Reply)
Yeah, the French are truly in denial regarding their social and economic plight. As I wrote elsewhere, people talk of Italians and _la dolce vita_, but they have nothing on the French and _la vie douce_. The French have (not universally, I grant, but close enough) come to regard the 35-hour work (if you can call it that) week and retirement at 60, along with government subsidies for nearly everything, as fundamental human rights. They don't want to give up the lifestyle to which the overwhelming majority of them has become accustomed, not even as a concession to reality. Not only will the ship have to hit the iceberg, but all forward compartments will have to flood and the ship list at 45 degrees before reality begins to penetrate.On a somewhat positive note, Marine Le Pen's post-first-round election strategy of "voting blank" (and encouraging her followers to do the same) might just pay off for her and the Front National come the next round of elections. Sometimes the ship has to be sinking in the water at a 45 degree list before the passengers will bestir themselves to do something.

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