11 septembre aaron klein abbas abdallah abdallah II abdelkader merah accords d'oslo adam zertal adenauer affaires Ă©trangĂ¨res afghanistan africom afrique afrique du sud ahmadinejad aipac AKP al qaeda al qaida al-arabiya al-fayed al-qaida algĂ©rie algeria aliyah allemagne amĂ©rique america anavad ANC angela merkel ankara ansar dine antisĂ©mitisme antisemitism antizionism apartheid aqmi arabes arabes israĂ©liens arabie saoudite arabs arafat armĂ©e armĂ©niens army ashkenazy assad assemblĂ©e gĂ©nĂ©rale assyriens atatĂĽrk auschwitz autoritĂ© palestinienne ayrault azawad Ă©conomie Ă©glise Ă©gypte Ă©lections Ă©tat Ă©tats-unis Ă©vangĂ©liques bachman baker balkans balladur bangladesh bankruptcy banlieues barack obama barak barbares bat yeor bayrou begin beheading beilin belgique belgium benoĂ®t xvi berbĂ¨res bernheim bible biden bill clinton blancs blood libel BNVCA bourgine brĂ©sil brexit britain brzezinski burke bush byzantins cahuzac cameron canada carter Castro cfr chaos charlie hebdo Chavez cheney chiisme chiites china chine chirac chosroes ii chrĂ©tiens christianisme christianity christians church chypre circumcision cisjordanie citizenship claude guĂ©ant clĂ©menceau clermont-tonnerre clinton cnn CNRS colin powell cologne columbia commentary communautĂ© communism communisme confrĂ©ries congrĂ¨s conseil de sĂ©curitĂ© conservatism conservative conservatives consistoire constantinople constitution contestation coptes coran corĂ©e du nord corsica crif crime crise crise sociale cuba cuisine cukierman culture daesh daniel johnson daniel pearl david pryce-jones dĂ©mocrates dĂ©mocratie dĂ©mographie de gasperi de gaulle democrats demographics demography desportes dhimmis dhimmitude dieudonnĂ© dinard dollar dreyfus droit international droite droits de l'homme druzes egypte eilat mazar eisenhower election elections emanuel emigration empire ottoman ena enderlin enfants erbakan erdogan espagne etat etats-unis ethnic ethnie EU eurabia eurasia euro europe european parliament european union exode expulsion expulsions fabius far left far right fatah fayĂ§al ferdinand ferhat fethullah gĂĽlen fifth republic fillon finkielkraut flandre flotille fmi FN fondapol food foreign affairs foreign policy france franco frĂ¨res musulmans french french muslims front national frontiĂ¨re internationale fusion antisemitism gates gauche gaza gĂ©nĂ©tique gĂ©nocide gĂ©opolitique genocide geopolitics george soros george w. bush george washington germany ghozlan gingrich giscard d'estaing giuliani globalization golden age goldnadel goldstone grande-bretagne grĂ¨ce greece greens grippe espagnole guĂ©ant guĂ©rilla guerre guerre civile guerre de sĂ©cession gurfinkiel hallal halutz hamas hamon haredim harkabi hĂ©breux hekla herzl herzog hezbollah hillary clinton hillel halkin histoire history hitler hollande holocaust holocauste hungary huntsman hurvah hypercasher ibn saoud icm research idĂ©ologie identitĂ© nationale ifop iforas iiie rĂ©publique ilan halimi immigrants immigration implantations inĂ¶nĂĽ inde ined internet interview irak iran irgoun isabelle ISIS islam islamic state islamism islamisme islamistes islamists israĂ©lites israĂ«l israel israel beiteinu italie ivan de bloch j call j street jabotinsky jĂ©rusalem jĂĽnger jean paul II jean-marie le pen jerusalem jewish revival jews jihad jihadism jihadisme jihadistes jihadists john mccain johnson jordanie jour de colĂ¨re judaĂŻsme judĂ©o-christianisme juifs juifs amĂ©ricains juppĂ© kabylie kadhafi kadima kadimah kassam kemal kennedy kerry kgb khamenei khomeini kippour kissinger knesset kohl korsia kosher kosher supermarket kosovo kotel kouchner l'express l'obs la paix maintenant laĂŻcitĂ© lapid ldj le drian le monde le nouvel observateur le pen le point lebanon left leftwing Levant liban libĂ©raux liberation libertariens libertĂ© libye liebermann ligne verte likoud livni livres london louis xvi LR lyons maccain macron magoudi mahmoud abbas mai 1968 mali mandat mandela mao marcion marcionisme marine le pen marines marion marĂ©chal-le pen maroc marseilles massacres massortis mavi marmara mayflower mĂ©dias mĂ©lanchon mccain media medias mein kampf merah meretz mergui merkel mexique michel gurfinkiel middle east migrants migration missiles mitterrand mnla mohamed merah monarchie monarchy monde arabe monde islamique monod mont du temple montauban montebourg montesquieu morocco morsi mosaic moscovici moubarak moyen-orient munich murder muslims musulmans napolĂ©on napoleon naqba nasser natalitĂ© national assembly national front nations unies nato nazis neo-french netanyahu nethanyahu new emerging powers new york new york review of books new york times nicolas sarkozy nixon noĂ«l nobel noirs north america norvĂ¨ge nouvel observateur november 13 NPA nuclĂ©aire obama occident occupation oliganthropie olmert olp onfray onu opinion orban orient orthodoxes oslo otan ottomans pacifisme pahlavi paix pakistan palestine palestinians palestiniens palin pape paris paritĂ© parlement europĂ©en pĂ©tain pĂ©trole pence peres peripheral france perses peste antonine peste de justinien petraeus peuple juif pew pipes PLO pogrom pogroms poland police politique poll pologne pompidou populism poutine prĂ©sidentielle prĂ©sidentielles premier tour presidential election primaires primaries printemps arabe processus de paix proche-orient prophĂ¨te protestantisme PS pundak putin qaradawi quai d'orsay quartiers quenelle qumran rabbis rabin racism rahm emanuel raid rajoy rasmussen rĂ©formĂ©s rĂ©formes rĂ©fugiĂ©s rĂ©publicains rĂ©volution reagan refugees regional elections religieux religion rempart republican pacts republicans restaurants revolution right riots riyad rogers romains romney ron paul roosevelt roquette rosenfeld rouhani royal royaume-uni russia russie rwanda sadate sahara salafistes salem al-fayed sanctuaire du rocher sandler santorum sarah halimi sarkozy saudi arabia savir sĂ©golĂ¨ne royal sĂ©nat sĂ©pharades scandale SCO SDN selden senate shafik shalit shalom akhshav shamir sharon shas shoah sionisme socialist socialists sociĂ©tĂ© society sondages soral soviet union spcj ss staline state nobility state of emergency statism stratĂ©gie strauss-kahn strikes subworlds succession sunnites sweden sykes-picot synagogue syria syrie tahrir tardieu tariq ramadan taubira tel-aviv terre d'israĂ«l terror terrorism terrorisme thatcher the west time tocqueville torah totalitarisme toulouse tourisme travaillistes trevidic tribus trilatĂ©rale truman trump tsahal tunisie turkey turquie tv ue uk ukraine UMP un unesco union europĂ©enne union pour la mĂ©diterranĂ©e united states unrwa URSS US usa valeurs actuelles valeurs judĂ©o-chrĂ©tiennes valls vatican vĂ©drine ve rĂ©publique versailles vichy vietnam violence walter laqueur war washington washington post wastelands west women wright yemen zacharie zapatero
Mercredi 29 juin 2016
The Road To Brexit : How Merkel Thwarted Cameron's Smart Gamble
The German Chancelor's reckless policies on migrants and Turkey turned Brexit into a reasonable proposition.
There were many signposts on the road to Brexit. As early as in 2001, the Swiss rejected access to the EU by an overwhelming 72.5 %. Four years later, in 2005, both the French and the Dutch rejected an European constitutional treaty project in separate referendums ; polls indicated that similar referendums would have turned the same way in other places. Over the recent years, anti-EU defiance increased. Radical anti-EU parties or more moderate Eurosceptic parties got higher and higner returns in most countries, either in national or European ballots. In some countries – Hungary, Poland, Greece – they just won the election and took over the cabinet. In some others – Austria – they almost did it.
Brexit is thus not so much a revolution in European affairs as the culmination of a long and steady process.
United Europe had been popular among Europeans, and every European nation was willing to join it, as long as it delivered prosperity, democracy, stability, global security. This was true of the six founding nations in the 1950’s and 1960’s, of Britain, Ireland, Scandinavia and the former Mediterranean dictatorships in the 1970’s, of the former Communist countries of Eastern Europe in the 1900’s.
Things changed by the mid-1990’s, however, when what had been known hitherto as the European Community was changed into the much tighter European Union. It soon became apparent, whatever the political class would say, that the more federalist the Union was becoming, the less it could actually deliver. Instead of the ever increasing prosperity they had taken for granted for half a century, many Europeans had to face zero growth, bankruptcy and long term austerity programs. Instead of more democracy – free expression, the rule of elected and responsible governments -, they were getting more « political correctness » and more bureaucracy. Instead of more global security, a new pervading sense of powerlessness in front of Russian imperialism and jihadist terror. Instead of more stability, more social disruption, especially in such essential areas as family and national identity.
The EU leadership was aware that things had gone sour and that disaffection was accumulating ; but it was not mentally equiped, for the best part of it, to draw the proper consequences and find solutions. David Cameron, the conservative Eurosceptic PM of Britain, was a exception in this regard : he had a plan, and a rather brilliant one at that. He was convinced he could have it both ways : organize a British referendum on Europe – thus allowing the anti-EU tide to rise very high -, and win it, even by a thin edge. He would then have appeared as the « savior of Europe », and be in a position to ask for a global reshaping and loosening of the European treaties.
Maybe such a calculation was sound enough in 2013, when Cameron promised to hold a referendum on the British EU membership. There was however a dramatic acceleration in the European and British anti-EU public opinion over the three past years. So much so that while Cameron may have been banking on 52%/48 % returns against Brexit, he got just the opposite.
Several developments contributed to the pro-Brexit shift. The EU political leadership’s failure to address the global Middle Eastern and North African issues – from the rise of Isis to the return of Russia, and from the involvement of European Muslims in jihadist massacres in Europe to the migrants crisis – , and German Chancelor Angela Merkel’s role in that failure, were probably decisive.
Above all, there was Merkel’s sudden and unilateral embrace, one year ago, of the Middle Eastern and North African migrants and refugees cause, and her call for the immediate admission of hundreds of thousands people, or even millions, in the EU, on a proportional per country basis. Indeed, she brought some 800 000 migrants almost overnight into her own 80 million country – a move that brought about a wide range of untractable difficulties, including in sexual ethics and women’s rights issues. Most other European countries acquiesed to Merkel’s call, but in fact downsized their own admission quotas to much smaller numbers. Some countries – Hungary, Slovenia, Poland - flatly rejected the German Chancelor’s guidelines.
Then, their was Merkel’s no less sudden and unilateral rapprochement with Turkey, once it was clear that more migrants were planning to settle in the EU. She traded a promise by Ankara to tighten its borders with European countries against a promise to resume decades-old talks for Turkey’s access to the Union, and, in the meanwhile, to let all Turkish citizens into the EU as visitors, even without a visa. There are exactly as many Turks, today, as Germans : 80 millions.
The British, who, in spite of an outwardly tolerant view of multiculturalism, have more restrictive immigration laws than most other EU nations, and who never endorsed the Schengen accords about free movement in the EU, were deeply puzzled. And many of those who had wavered until then between Euroscepticism and Eurofederalism concluded that Eurofederalism was leading to reckless, ill-conceived and unstoppable decisions in such essential fields as mass immigration and others.
The mess had to be checked. Or at least Britain should be kept out of it. Brexit might have looked in the past a bit quixotic ; and the European option might have been seen as safer. Thanks to Merkel, the proposition was now reversed.
© Michel Gurfinkiel & PJMedia, 2016
Michel Gurfinkiel is the Founder and President of the Jean-Jacques Rousseau Institute, a conservative think-thank in France, and a Shillman/Ginsburg Fellow at Middle East Forum.
Afficher les commentaires en (Vue non groupĂ©e | Vue groupĂ©e)
Pas de commentaires
Pas de rĂ©troliens