Are the French equiped for a war on terror on their own soil ? Perhaps not.
A state of emergency – likely to last three months at least – has been declared in France after the killing and suicide bombing spree in Paris last Friday night, which claimed 129 dead and about 300 wounded. So far, everybody, right or left, seems to agree that the country must resort to drastic means in order to restore domestic safety. Commentators frequently point to Israel as an example to be followed in this respect.
Under the state of emergency, borders controls, that had been loosened in many cases under the Schengen regime, have been reestablished. Police actions have been conducted throughout the country : 23 people were under arrest on Monday. Mosques seen as hotbeds of radicalism may be closed and some foreign imams may be expelled. Security forces in full combat gear have been displayed around public buildings and in public spaces.
Still, one wonders how effective such policies can be. It is, to start with, a matter of numbers. According to Vincent Desportes, a former Army general who now teaches at Sciences Po (the Institute of Political Strudies in Paris) and just authored a book on national defense, the French security apparatus is both crippled and overstretched. The military forces « operational strength » was cut by 25 % under president Sarkozy (2007-2012), and again by 25 % under the three and half first years of president Hollande (since 2012) : they cannot display more than 100 000 personnels. Moreover, the best elements – 20 000 personnels as an average – are constantly rotating on missions abroad, from the Sahel countries to the Middle East to Afghanistan.
In addition to the armed forces, the French rely on the Gendarmerie, a semi-militarized police corps, and the regular police, both over 100 000 strong. The entire defense and security apparatus can thus be estimated to a bit over 300 000. By every standard, this is barely enough for 67 million inhabitants (overseas territories included). According to L’Opinion, a daily newspaper published in Paris, personnels involved since the Charlie Hebdo killings last January with Operation Sentinelle, the protection of « sensible » places like synagogues, mosques, churches, schools and specific media, have complained of being overworked.
A second major difficulty is the ethnic and religious diversity of contemporary France. The eight November 13 terrorists in Paris were apparently Muslim French citizens of North African descent. Previous killings were perpetrated by Muslim French citizens of North African or Subsahelian African descent. Thousands of young French Muslims have joined Al Qaida and the ISIS over the past years, and many of them are actually back in the country. Many areas in urban and even rural France have been described as « no go » zones by the French police and seem to be controlled either by ethnic criminal gangs or by jihadist networks, or by both.
Under such circumstances, a sustained war on terror may easily lapse into a kind of civil war between the ethnic French and the French Muslims, even if the security forces are thoroughly integrated and in fact list a high proportion members of the ethnic and religious minorities.
It is estimated that the French Muslim community grew from 5 % of the global population to 9 % in 2014, either out of immigration or natural growth. According to a comprehensive investigation published just one year ago by Fondapol (the French Foundation for Political Innovation), a political science think tank, French Muslims split into three group : the « observants », the « believers », and the « French citizens of Muslim origin ». The first group grew from 36 % in 2001 to 42 % in 2014 and is much more likely than the two other groups to entertain negative views against non-Muslims.
© Michel Gurfinkiel & The Jewish Chronicle, 2015