I guess Rick Santorum is the best Republican challenger against an incumbent Barack Obama.
Rick Santorum, the former US senator from Pennsylvania (1995-2007), ended the Iowa Republican Caucus, last Tuesday, neck to neck with Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts (2003-2007) : 24.6 % of the vote each.
Can Santorum actually win more primaries and be nominated as the 2012 Republican candidate against an incumbent Barack Obama ? Not a sure bet (think of Mike Huckabee, who won Iowa in 2008, and then lost nation-wide to McCain and Romney), but not an option to be discarded either.
The present Republican primaries are not so much about selecting one individual candidate over another than about deciding between two political visions : either the classic, « moderate », « country club » GOP, or the populist, conservative, Tea Party style, GOP. Romney stands as the only moderate candidate, whereas there are, as of today, six candidates stand as conservatives. Which brings Romney so far more support, in arithmetical terms, than to any other contendant. But things can change dramatically if the six conservatives boiled down to only one : there are simply much more Tea Party voters than country-club voters. And my guess is that Santorum is both the most likely to emerge as the leading anti-Romney candidate and subsequently as the best Republican candidate.
Why ?
First, Santorum has a measure of charisma, like Obama, and much more so than any other Republican contender. He is 54, just three years older than Obama (51) and two years older than Jon Huntsman (52), much younger than Ron Paul (77), Newt Gingrich (68), Romney (65), Rick Perry (62), and even younger than Michele Bachman (56). He actually looks younger than Obama (thanks to his black hair) and – in Hollywood terms – almost as sexy (thanks to his Italian heritage). While not a Harvard graduate, like Obama, he was seriously educated (Penn State, Dickinson School of Law). He is very eloquent and usually knows what he says.
Second, Santorum's political carreer has been largely impressive. He was elected to the House of Representatives at the age of 32, in a heavily Democratic district in Pittsburgh's suburbs, and reelected there in spite of an unfriendly district redrawing. Likewise, he conquered in 1994 a Democratic US senate seat, and was reelected in 2000. Which means that, as a Republican, he knows how to talk to Democrats, an essential factor in presidential elections.
While himself a rich man, he remembers that his grandparents were poor and actually translated such feelings into political stands. A uncompassionate libertarian he is not.
Indeed he lost in 2006, a year of Republican retreat. And quite murkily, at that. But failures and wounds are not too bad, when you were known hitherto as a winner. It makes you look more human.
Third, Santorum has views and convictions. People may not share them. But they will admit that he is sincere. He is a strong Reaganite when it comes to national security issues and the economy. And strong social conservative, who emphasizes the role of morality both in the public and private spheres. His views on homosexuality are seen as « controversial » by the elite, but not by the average voters, who, when consulted, opposed almost everywhere same sexe mariage.
And as a Catholic, he didn’t spare Catholic priests either when involved in immoral or criminal behavior.
Fourth, Santorum has always been a staunch friend of Israel and the Jewish people — a very good point in US politics so far. All present Republican candidates say they are pro-Israel, except Ron Paul. But Santorum is more articulate and has more on the record as a former senator on these matters than most of them. And as for Obama, he says, of course, that he is pro-Israel, but only diehard Jewish liberals trust him on this account.
(c) Michel Gurfinkiel, 2012